Can We Win at a Trott?

Spare a thought for Ravi Bopara. Ommitted from the final Ashes Test squad on the grounds the 105 runs in 7 innings he's scored against the Australians isn't enough. Only in a England shirt could a promising and evidently talented player go from 'good enough' to 'not good enough' in 4 matches. It wouldn't happen in the West Indies and it certainly wouldn't happen in Oz. 

This year's England Ashes team has been a model of inconsistency. On top one minute, outclassed the next. But the selectors have been nothing if not true to previous form. Only they would elevate a player to England status, play him in a team where no-one has really found any form to speak of and then drop him like a stone when victory was in sight. 

At Headlingly, the England captain Andrew Strauss called for a period of calm reflection and no panicky decisions. Just how much influence on team selection does the solid yet conservative Strauss actually have? A calm decision would have been to let Bopara repay some of the faith that has been shown in him. If he was good enough at the start of the series, surely its much more reasonable to expect that his time would have come at the Oval and he'd score a few runs? Apparently not. Now, should he ever make it back into the England side he'll have to prove himself all over again. Fine work by the selectors and I'm sure that Bopara is just as miffed as he should be. He's been jetisoned in favour of an in form county player with no international Test experience. And to compound the madness, his replacement isn't even going to bat in his position - Number 3. The deeply unconvincing Ian Bell will step up with the newcomer Jonathan Trott batting at four. 

This is a decision that makes little sense. If Trott is good enough to play, then he should be good enough to play at three. If Bopara is struggling, just swap him with Bell. Selecting Trott makes no tactical sense. He's a greater gamble than leaving Bopara in the side. At least Bopara's had a good look at the Australian bowlers. I'd argue that he has just a much chance as Trott to make a few runs and help England to victory. Don't drop him altogether and risk destroying another potential England player's career before it even starts.

The Australians wouldn't do this. They stuck by the errant work of Mitchell Johnson for three Tests and were rewarded when he took six wickets at Headingly.

So can England win with Trott in the side? Of course they can but they'll need more of the spirit they showed at Lords. And they must win the toss. If conditions don't favour the batsmen, Ponting will choose to field first and Trott will be making his way back to the Pavilion before he's even had chance to get his brand new England kit dirty.

I suspect that Monty Panesar will replace Graham Onions. All the talk is that the wicket will favour him. And nothing will stop Andrew Flintoff from playing. And nor should it. He was greatly missed at Headingly and is really the only inspirational player in the England side.

Australia are beatable. But they have match-winners in their side and the only English player with that kind of skill is Freddie.

If the line-up is Strauss, Cook, Bell, Trott, Collingwood, Prior, Flintoff, Broad, Anderson, Harmison, Panesar then we have a chance. But all eleven will have to play their best. And the Aussies will have to slip up. And I ask you... which is more likely when the stakes are as high as this? One thing's for sure, The Oval is the place to be come Thursday morning.